Statistical Essay on Voter Demographics in 2016

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Demographics, which is essentially the science of population statistics and the impact of gender, age, race, income, education, employment, and economics on a geographical area, has and will always have an impact on elections.  Whether or not you are looking to buy a sample essay, we encourage you to read this sample paper in order to further your understanding of how demographics affect elections and specifically, the 2016 election. The primary source of demographic information in the U. S. is a combination of the United States Census Bureau and the United States Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (Entrepreneur Staff).

Demographics and the political parties

Historically, demographics were negatively impacted by an illegal procedure called gerrymandering. The first use of the word occurred in response to actions taken by Governor Gerry, in Massachusetts, who signed a bill which redrew election districts in preparation for a senate race, so that they favored his political party (Barasch). The outline of the new district he created looked like a salamander, thus the name, a portmanteau, of the governor’s last name and the word salamander. The goal of gerrymandering is to strengthen the power of a political party (Ingraham).

The process was held illegal in the Supreme Court case entitled Davis v. Bandemer (1986), as a violation of the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment to the Constitution, however, due to the justices’ inability to agree, a standard for legal evaluation was not created (“Partisan Gerrymandering”). As a result, significant attention is paid to redistricting efforts which wear the stench of gerrymandering.

The Republican party establishment is generally concerned about the successful progression of a potential Donald Trump candidacy (Sargent, “The Demographics”). They are particularly concerned with Trump’s outbursts on immigration, civil unrest, Muslims, Mexicans, and the apparent bro-mance he has energized between himself and white nationalist and former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke.

Though he is successful at inspiring and rousing the popular sentiments of many in the GOP, the party elite is concerned about the demographics that may ultimately influence the actual November general election results, should he be the nominee in opposition to the Democratic party’s candidate. Due to the loss experienced by the party to a Black President twice in a row, the GOP has sensed that they should become a bit more inclusive (Fitzgerald). Clearly, Trump is not that guy! Here’s the logic.

Trump against women

Women represent over 50% of the American demographic (US Census Bureau). As of 2014, there were 162 million women in the United States, and 157 million men. Why would you want to anger women, when they represent the population majority? A Republican political action committee, Our Principles PAC, led by former Jeb Bush staffers is raising money to, among other things, spend $500,000 on an advertisement that focuses attention on remarks Trump has made over time against women (Bash & LoBianco).

The ad, entitled “Real Donald Trump Quotes About Women,” shows multiple women, Caucasian and African American, repeating phrases or statements made by Donald Trump. The actual video can be seen on TrumpQuestions.com, and to be quite frank, the statements are far more disturbing than I thought they were going to be, each comment is part of a longer derogatory composition expressed at different times. A link from the statement to a discussion about its context is provided in the reference section:

“Bimbo.”

“Dog.”

“Fat pig.”

“A person who is very flat-chested is very hard to be a 10.”

“I'd look her right in that fat, ugly face of hers.”

 “Look at that face. Would anyone vote for that?”

“She had the height, she had the beauty. She was crazy. But these are minor details.”

“I like kids. I mean, I won't do anything to take care of them. I'll supply funds and she'll take care of the kids.”

“You know, it really doesn't matter what they write as long as you've got a young and beautiful piece of a**.”

“That must be a pretty picture, you dropping to your knees.”

“There was blood coming out of her eyes, blood coming out of her ... wherever.”

“Women, you have to treat them like s***.” (Chokshi). 

After hearing these remarks, is it possible that Trump is not really running for political office, but views this year and one half of pre-candidacy airtime as free publicity for his properties, services and products, and in fact, he really does not care whether he wins the presidency? If he is able to achieve accord and exhilarate his support base to visit his hotel and golf properties and buy his products and services, doesn’t that make him even more wealthy, and more happy?

Perhaps this is not really a run for Pennsylvania Avenue, but a free publicity stump to get his constituency to buy Trump. If he gains the presidency, he wins! If he loses the presidency, he wins! Like Charlie Sheen, who at least at one time wanted to be Donald’s VP would say, “Winning” (Scott)! 

Political demographics: Women

In a race against Hillary Clinton, a woman, how would the Donald fare in the face of these allegations? Let’s ignore politics, and simply focus on a demographic run between a woman, named Hillary, and a man, named Donald? Sometimes the obvious need not really be discussed. I am not a political analyst or a political scientist by any means. No one consults me when it comes to politics, let’s be as transparent as possible. Demographically, the last time the Republican party had an opportunity to take the White House, women represented 53% of all voters, nationwide (“How Groups Voted in 2012”).

Of those voters,

• 53% voted for Obama
• 44% voted for Romney
• Men represented 47% of all voters in 2012.
• women represented 53% of all voters, nationwide
• 56% voted for Obama
• 43% voted for Romney.

This is likely what concerns the anti-Trump Republicans. If Hillary raises these issues, and pulls the “woman” card, (similar to the “race” card, just a credit card for women), how does Trump stand a chance? I think that being a woman is more important to women, than being a member of a particular political party, (again, not sure, but I believe this to be true), especially when the opponent is a misogynistic guy who makes racist statements, as well. 

Political demographics: on race

Trump’s constituent backers, according to The Hill, are “white, male, low-income, non-college educated group[s]” (Williams). Blue collar workers who are frustrated with the loss of jobs, lethargic wages and unmanageable debt are encouraged by Trump’s unapologetic rhetoric. Frustration is driving suicides, alcohol abuse, and drug use, while societal and pecuniary pressures are at an all-time high. Similar to the success of shock jocks like Howard Stern, Trump is the shock jock of the presidential race.

People love Howard Stern because of his authenticity, and ability to say just about anything in the most offensive way. So too, is Trump enjoying the support of those who feel disenfranchised, and believe that he is saying what they are thinking and experiencing, but cannot give voice to on a daily basis (Williams).

Trump bombasts people who have any level of tint in the skin. His attack against Muslim people was discussed in an interview with Maria Bartiromo.

Frankly, we’re having problems with the Muslims . . . We have to be smart. We have to look at the mosques and study what’s going on. There is a sick problem going on . . . I would be extremely careful about people from the Middle East coming into our country. (Hensch & Byrnes)

Yet there are many Muslims who have come to this country, made a contribution and help to make America great. 

His attack on Mexicans is no less reprehensible. In describing Mexicans he has said that they are

“bringing drugs, they’re bringing crime, they’re rapists – and some, I assume, are good people,”

Trump went on to say, “They have to go,” when talking about undocumented immigrants whose stay in the U. S. has been forestalled by Obama’s executive orders (Diamond & Murray).

He added that he wants to build a wall to prevent Mexicans from entering the country illegally, and will require Mexico to pay for it. The Berlin Wall came down in 1992, but Trump wants to build a new wall. These remarks are alienating many of the Hispanics who were happy to be welcomed into the Republican party (Diamond & Murray).

In Chicago, Trump had to cancel a rally because of heightened racial tensions there. It was generally described as white versus black tensions (Williams). Previously, in Fayetteville, North Carolina, a White Trump supporter sucker punched a Black Trump protester, and when interviewed McGraw said, “he deserved it. The next time we see him, we might have to kill him. We don’t know who he is. He might be with a terrorist organization” (Moyer & Murphy). Trump later indicated that he would look into paying the legal bills for the man who sucker punched the protester, and added that he does not condone violence (Savransky). One thing is certain. Trump is not scoring points.

In other racial news, David Duke, a White nationalist, former Ku Klux Klan grand wizard, and a staunch Trump supporter, told his radio audience that,

“"voting for anyone besides Donald Trump ‘is really treason to your heritage . . . Voting for these people, voting against Donald Trump at this point, is really treason to your heritage’” (Collins).

Demographically speaking, in the last two presidential races, African Americans voted almost unanimously for the Democratic party ("How Groups Voted in 2012"). In fact, Hispanic, Asian and Others voted majority Democratic as well. If Trump continues to alienate those who are different from him by making disparaging remarks and intensifying his bro-mance with David Duke, this is likely to occur again.

Demographics: Generally

Clearly Trump is a lightning rod, and if nothing more, he never fails to provide ample fodder for discourse. The question, though, is Donald Trump helping or hurting the Republican party’s chances to claim the White House. It is clear that he is not reviewing the U.S. Census Bureau’s demographic statistical data, nor is he monitoring the demographic information provided by the numerous political analysis organizations, and is simply marching to his own beat, and perhaps that is what makes him so popular.

Those that support him see him as refreshing. In fact, there is something nice about not always having to be politically correct. Yet, it really seems that Trump is creating a major dilemma for the GOP. The party establishment is beginning to realize this and is preparing to address it. Politico has collected a list of The 199 Most Donald Trump Things Donald Trump Has Ever Said: Would you vote for this man? It’s like taking a trip down memory lane of the most insulting things Trump has ever said, and an interesting commentary on his perception of himself (Kruse). This is why the question still exists, is Trump actually running for the presidency, or is he really running to promote himself and his businesses to increase his wealth? 

Works Cited

Barasch, Emily. "The Twisted History of Gerrymandering in American Politics." The Atlantic. The Atlantic Monthly Group. 19 September 2012. Web. 22 March 2016. <http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/09/the-twisted-history-of-gerrymandering-in-american-politics/262369/#slide2>.

Bash, Dana and LoBianco, Tom. "Anti-Trump ad shows women reading Trump comments." CNN. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. 15 March 2016. Web. 22 March 2016. <http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/14/politics/donald-trump-ad-women/>.

Brownstein, Ronald. "The Most Valuable Voters of 2016." The Atlantic. The Atlantic Monthly Group. 18 February 2015. Web. 22 March 2016.   <http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/02/the-most-valuable-voters-of-2016/431865/>.

Chokshi, Niraj. "‘Bimbo, dog, fat pig': New ads portray Trump as a woman-hating lover of violence." The Washington Post. Nash Holdings LLC. 14 March 2016. Web. 22 March 2016. <https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/14/bimbo-dog-fat-pig-new-ads-portray-trump-as-a-woman-hating-lover-of-violence/>.

Collins, Eliza. "David Duke: Voting against Trump is 'treason to your heritage.'" Politico. Politico, LLC. 25 February 2016. Web. 22 March 2016. <http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/david-duke-trump-219777>.

Diamond, Jeremy and Murray, Sara. "Trump outlines immigration specifics." CNN. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. 17 August 2015. Web. 22 March 2016. <http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/16/politics/donald-trump-immigration-plans/>.

Entrepreneur Staff. "Demographics." Entrepreneur. Entrepreneur Media, Inc. Web. 22 March 2016. <http://www.entrepreneur.com/encyclopedia/demographics>.

Fenn, Peter. "Why Trump Won't Win." US News & World Report. US News & World Report, LP. 21 March 2016. Web. 22 March 2016. <http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/peter-fenn/articles/2016-03-21/trump-has-deep-demographic-problems-come-the-2016-general-election>.

Fitzgerald, Sandy. "Paul Ryan Calls on Republicans to Be 'Inspirational and Inclusive'." NewsMax. NewsMax Media, Inc. <http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/Paul-Ryan-Calls-Republicans-Inspirational/2016/01/11/id/708982/>. 

Hensch, Mark and Byrnes, Jesse. "Trump: 'Frankly, we’re having problems with the Muslims’." The Hill. Capitol Hill Publishing Corp, a subsidiary of News Communications, Inc.. 22 March 2016. Web. 22 March 2016. <http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/273857-trump-frankly-were-having-problems-with-the-muslims>.

"How Groups Voted in 2012." Roper Center for Public Opinion Research. Roper Center, Cornell University. n. d. Web. 22 March 2016. <http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-2012/>.

Ingraham, Christopher. "This is the best explanation of gerrymandering you will ever see." The Washington Post. Nash Holdings LLC. 21 March 2016. Web. 22 March 2016. <https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/03/01/this-is-the-best-explanation-of-gerrymandering-you-will-ever-see/>.

Kruse, Michael. "The 199 Most Donald Trump Things Donald Trump Has Ever Said: Would you vote for this man?" Politico. Politico, LLC. 14 August 2015. Web. 22 March 2016. <http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/08/the-absolute-trumpest-121328>.

Moyer, Justin and Murphy, Brian. "Defending the sucker punch at Trump rally. Suspect was ‘cowboy action’ reenactor." The Washington Post. Nash Holdings LLC. 11 March 2016. Web. 22 March 2016. <https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2016/03/11/trump-supporters-defend-the-sucker-punch-just-a-little-poke-on-the-beak/>.

"Partisan Gerrymandering." Minnesota Senate. Redistricting Task Force for the National Conference of State Legislatures. 31 October 2003. Web. 22 March 2016. 2016. <http://www.senate.leg.state.mn.us/departments/scr/redist/red2000/ch5parti.htm>.

Sargent, Greg. "The demographics of 2016 look brutal for Republicans." The Washington Post. Nash Holdings LLC. 10 July 2015. Web. 22 March 2016. <https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2015/07/10/the-demographics-of-2016-look-brutal-for-republicans/>.

Sargent, Greg. "Donald Trump will (almost certainly) never be elected president. Here’s why." The Washington Post. Nash Holdings LLC. 21 March 2016. Web. 22 March 2016. <https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/03/21/donald-trump-will-almost-certainly-never-be-elected-president-heres-why/>.

Savransky, Rebecca. "Trump looking into paying legal fees in sucker punch incident." The Hill. Capitol Hill Publishing Corp, a subsidiary of News Communications, Inc.. 13 March 2016. Web. 22 March 2016. <http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/272822-trump-im-looking-into-paying-legal-fees-of-supporter-who>.

Scott, Eugene. "One candidate Charlie Sheen doesn't want to see 'winning': Donald Trump." CNN. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. 27 February 2016. Web. 22 March 2016. <http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/27/politics/charlie-sheen-donald-trump/>.

Williams, Juan. "Juan Williams: Trump plays the race card." The Hill. Capitol Hill Publishing Corp, a subsidiary of News Communications, Inc.. 21 March 2016. Web. 22 March 2016. <http://thehill.com/opinion/juan-williams/273609-juan-williams-trump-plays-the-race-card>.

LIST OF LINKS TO TRUMP ARTICLES DENEGRATING WOMEN

“Bimbo.” <https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/erik-wemple/wp/2016/02/05/fox-newss-megyn-kelly-words-like-bimbo-empower-internet-misogynists-like-donald-trump/>.

“Dog.” <https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/08/08/so-which-women-has-donald-trump-called-dogs-and-fat-pigs/>.

“Fat pig.” <https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/08/08/so-which-women-has-donald-trump-called-dogs-and-fat-pigs/>.

“A person who is very flat-chested is very hard to be a 10.” <http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/donald-trump-said-a-lot-of-gross-things-about-women-on-howar>.

“I'd look her right in that fat, ugly face of hers.” <http://www.eonline.com/news/54017/rosie-vs-donald-she-said-he-said>.

“Look at that face. Would anyone vote for that?” <https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/09/10/trump-goes-hard-after-carson-defends-himself-on-controversial-fiorina-slam/?tid=a_inl>.

“She had the height, she had the beauty. She was crazy. But these are minor details.” <http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/donald-trump-said-a-lot-of-gross-things-about-women-on-howar>.

“I like kids. I mean, I won't do anything to take care of them. I'll supply funds and she'll take care of the kids.” <http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1602/25/cg.01.html>.

“You know, it really doesn't matter what they write as long as you've got a young and beautiful piece of a**.” <https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trumps-history-of-flippant-misogyny/2015/08/08/891f1bec-3de4-11e5-9c2d-ed991d848c48_story.html>.

“That must be a pretty picture, you dropping to your knees.” <http://www.thedailybeast.com/videos/2015/08/07/watch-trump-s-ugly-drop-to-your-knees-comment.html>.

“There was blood coming out of her eyes, blood coming out of her ... wherever.” <https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/08/07/trump-says-foxs-megyn-kelly-had-blood-coming-out-of-her-wherever/>.

“Women, you have to treat them like s***.” <http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/08/the-absolute-trumpest-121328>.